Polymarket Forecast
Forward MLB moneyline forecasting and execution simulation
PAPER_ONLY
Runtime
Cohort
mlb-burn-in-v1
Mode
BURN_IN
Cohort drain
complete
Schema
10
Generated
2026-09-17T16:20:58Z
Latest census
Events
131
Moneylines
89
Eligible
87
Prospective coverage
Planned events
96
Due eligible
10
Registered
10
Registration coverage
1
Decision books
10 / 10
Book capture coverage
1
Primary output coverage
0.5
Resolution follow-up
10 / 10
Pre-cohort misses
14
Evaluation
Primary pairs
5
All-arm support
5
Mean paired Brier Δ
0.01041
Fixed research Brier Δ
0.0372380123
Market challenge Brier Δ
-0.0329714
Combined agent Brier Δ
0.00078705
Pilot states
| State | Count |
|---|---|
| EVALUATED | 10 |
| INELIGIBLE | 72 |
| MISSED_CUTOFF | 14 |
Next planned events
| Event | Cutoff | State | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| mlb:10078784 | 2026-07-19T22:40:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078792 | 2026-07-19T23:05:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078791 | 2026-07-19T23:10:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078785 | 2026-07-19T23:15:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078793 | 2026-07-19T23:40:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078787 | 2026-07-20T00:05:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078788 | 2026-07-20T00:10:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078796 | 2026-07-20T00:40:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078789 | 2026-07-20T01:40:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |
| mlb:10078790 | 2026-07-20T02:10:00+00:00 | EVALUATED | RESOLUTION_FOLLOW_UP_COMPLETE |